Understanding Valuation in Thai Markets
Valuation methods aren't universal. What
works on Wall Street needs adjustment for
emerging markets like Thailand. Here's what
we've learned from analyzing hundreds of
SET-listed companies.
Price-to-earnings ratios get thrown around
constantly, but they're meaningless without
sector context. A P/E of 15 might signal
undervaluation in tech, while the same ratio
in utilities could indicate overheating. Thai
markets have their own historical norms,
influenced by local liquidity patterns and
foreign investment flows.
We spend considerable time on discount rate
selection. The textbook WACC formula needs
tweaking here. Country risk premiums matter.
Currency exposure matters. Government policy
shifts matter more than in developed markets.
Students initially hate how complicated this
gets, but it's where real analysis begins.
A Common Valuation Mistake
New analysts often apply growth
assumptions that ignore economic cycles.
Thai GDP doesn't grow linearly. Tourism,
exports, and domestic consumption all have
their own rhythms. Your DCF model should
reflect that reality, not some optimistic
straight-line projection.
Book value takes on different significance in
markets where assets might not be marked to
market frequently. Real estate holdings,
especially, can hide considerable value or
risk depending on location and development
cycles. We teach students to dig into
footnotes—that's where the real story lives.
And here's something most courses skip:
understanding when NOT to value a company.
Some businesses are too unpredictable, too
dependent on regulatory whims, or operating
in sectors you simply don't understand well
enough. Knowing your limits is part of
fundamental analysis.